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It is my contention that the hindsight bias would encourage the subjective analysts to notice the bullish flag pattern rather than the bearish head-and-shoulder pattern. In other words, the possession of outcome knowledge tends to make patterns that gave incorrect predictions less noticeable while making patterns that predicted accurately more noticeable. 9 The true uncertainty of foresight. 10 The false certainty of hindsight. B 55 The Illusory Validity of Subjective Technical Analysis bullish bull flag to an observer looking back from point B.

This is intended to illustrate how the hindsight bias can obscure the ambiguity that existed at time A, thereby creating an illusion of validity for subjective chart analysis, irrespective of which path prices actually took. 10. This is the same chart shown previously with an uptrend tacked on after point A. This observer knows an uptrend took place between A and B. It is my contention that the hindsight bias would encourage the subjective analysts to notice the bullish flag pattern rather than the bearish head-and-shoulder pattern.

The knowledge illusion is relevant to TA because it is most likely to occur in situations characterized by large amounts of data. Not only do financial markets generate a torrent of individual time series, but each one can be transformed into a far greater number of derivative time series called technical indicators. This provides ample opportunity for TA practitioners to see themselves as more knowledgeable than they really are. The knowledge illusion stems in part from an overconfidence in the mind’s ability to perform configural reasoning, the simultaneous 50 METHODOLOGICAL, PSYCHOLOGICAL, PHILOSOPHICAL, STATISTICAL FOUNDATIONS interpretation of a multitude of variables.

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Advanced Swing Trading by J.Crane.

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