Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts: Risk Classification, - download pdf or read online

By Michel Denuit, Xavier Marechal, Sandra Pitrebois, Jean-Francois Walhin

ISBN-10: 0470026774

ISBN-13: 9780470026779

There are quite a lot of variables for actuaries to contemplate while calculating a motorist’s coverage top rate, corresponding to age, gender and kind of car. additional to those components, motorists’ premiums are topic to adventure ranking platforms, together with credibility mechanisms and Bonus Malus platforms (BMSs).

Actuarial Modelling of declare Counts offers a entire remedy of a number of the adventure score structures and their relationships with danger class. The authors summarize the newest advancements within the box, proposing ratemaking platforms, while making an allowance for exogenous information.

The text:

  • Offers the 1st self-contained, useful method of a priori and a posteriori ratemaking in motor insurance.
  • Discusses the problems of declare frequency and declare severity, multi-event platforms, and the mixtures of deductibles and BMSs.
  • Introduces fresh advancements in actuarial technological know-how and exploits the generalised linear version and generalised linear combined version to accomplish probability classification.
  • Presents credibility mechanisms as refinements of business BMSs.
  • Provides useful purposes with genuine info units processed with SAS software.

Actuarial Modelling of declare Counts is key interpreting for college kids in actuarial technology, in addition to working towards and educational actuaries. it's also supreme for pros all for the assurance undefined, utilized mathematicians, quantitative economists, monetary engineers and statisticians.

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Additional resources for Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts: Risk Classification, Credibility and Bonus-Malus Systems

Sample text

Assumption (iii) indicates that the probability that the policyholder files two or more Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts 18 claims in a sufficiently small time interval is negligible when compared to the probability that he reports zero or only one claim. Link with the Poisson Distribution The Poisson process is intimately linked to the Poisson distribution, as precisely stated in the next result. 1 For any Poisson process, the number of events in any interval of length t is Poisson distributed with mean t, that is, for all s t ≥ 0, Pr N t + s − N s = n = exp − t tn n!

Specifically, let us assume that Nn ∼ in n /n and let n tend to + . The probability mass at 0 then becomes n Pr Nn = 0 = 1 − n → exp − as n → + To get the probability masses on the positive integers, let us compute the ratio n−k Pr Nn = k + 1 = k+1 n → Pr Nn = k k+1 1− n as n → + from which we conclude k lim Pr Nn = k = exp − k! n→+ Poisson Distribution The Poisson random variable takes its values in 0 1 pk = exp − k k! 13) Having a counting random variable N , we denote as N ∼ oi the fact that N is Poisson distributed with parameter .

Assuming that the claims occur according to a Poisson process is thus equivalent to assuming that the time between two consecutive claims has a Negative Exponential distribution. Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process A generalization of the Poisson process is obtained by letting the rate of the process vary with time. We then replace the constant rate by a function t → t of time t and we define the nonhomogeneous Poisson process with rate · . The Poisson process defined above (with a constant rate) is then termed as the homogeneous Poisson process.

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Actuarial Modelling of Claim Counts: Risk Classification, Credibility and Bonus-Malus Systems by Michel Denuit, Xavier Marechal, Sandra Pitrebois, Jean-Francois Walhin

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